topic Ministry

History of BMBF Foresight

The project "Technology at the beginning of the 21st century" (1991-1992) can be regarded as the start of foresight processes conducted by the BMBF. It employed the relevance tree method. The main results are a list of technologies and maps covering technologies of the future which demonstrate for the first time that new technology topics are developing in particular at the interface between "classical" disciplines. Nanotechnology and micro-systems technology, for example, were identified as important future topics.

The years 1992 and 1993 saw the first German Delphi Study on the Development of Science and Technology which was commissioned by the then Federal Ministry of Research and Technology (BMFT). The methods used in the study were based on the fifth Japanese Delphi Study; a German-Japanese comparison followed. The results from a total of 16 topic areas, ranging from energy to information and communication technology, were made available free of charge to all interested parties. German industry in particular was thus able to use the results for its strategic planning. Delphi '98 began in 1996 as a study on the global development of science and technology. Data was updated in this study and "typically German" topics put forward for discussion. The results were in great demand from all stakeholders in the German innovation system. Once again companies were the most avid users, followed by the media. In view of the approaching turn of the millennium, the reports met with great interest and were also used in schools.

In 2000, the BMBF launched the "Research Dialogue Futur" (2000-2005). In contrast to the Delphi Surveys that had been drawing on scientific expertise, this project worked with a large group of stakeholders from all areas of society to identify research topics which might feature in tangible research funding activities. The results were four lead visions some of which, including interdisciplinary topics, have been included in BMBF projects. For example, the lead vision "Understanding Thought Processes" contributed to the founding of the National Bernstein Network for Computational Neuroscience.

While the focus of the "Research Dialogue Futur" was directed towards societal needs, the BMBF Foresight Process that started in September 2007 took a more technology-driven approach. The BMBF Foresight became strongly systematized and structurally reflected in the BMBF. The Foresight process was planned as a continuous strategic instrument and refocused on a scientific expert-based approach.

This Foresight Process combines foresight and monitoring in an integrated approach. In order to look into the future, it takes into account existing experince from foresight approaches, including well-known research strategies and other methods from the field of innovation research as well as new, creative methods. The BMBF Foresight Process also involves personal dialogues with national and international experts and decision makers to ensure high scientific standards and an international reach. The process was carried out parallel to identifying future trends ranging from established high tech fields to the seven future fields. The successful approach was continued in May 2012 with the start of Cycle 2.