Explanation

Monitoring

What does monitoring mean?

Monitoring means taking stock of and identifying new developments. The BMBF's Foresight Process is focusing its attention on taking stock of and identifying new developments in research and technology. This involves the targeted search for specific information in closely defined areas which is then continuously analysed to serve as a basis for forecasts for the future.
Conceptually, monitoring is an approach which focuses less on creating future scenarios than on the comprehensive and precise observation of existing situations, procedures and processes, also involving a dynamic component. Monitoring supplies an objective data, information and knowledge base for drafting interpretations and drawing conclusions. The process makes it possible to determine critical decision points, formulate options for action and thus make decisions on the strength of an improved information base.

Implementation of monitoring activities

An International Panel consisting of selected experts was set up to perform the monitoring activities. It is the task of the International Panel to provide information on developments in research and technology at the earliest possible stage within the framework of guided discussions. This involves conducting open interviews aimed at identifying new topics at an early stage. Monitoring sees itself as a process which is open for new, creative answers.
The experts were selected according to strict criteria. Prerequisites included, for example, strong international networking, a high international reputation in the science community and membership of relevant international boards in the specific field.

The expert interviews enable the following:

• The evaluation of situations, information and opinions by top experts in the fields of research, research policy and everyday practice to help to enhance knowledge on the relevant topics.
• The generation of knowledge on how the area in question could develop.
• The provision of information on the strategic and scientific orientation of the topic areas as well as their further development.
  

Embodying monitoring activities in the overall process

The results of the monitoring process can and should ensure greater awareness of changes in the specific environment under observation and thus connect with the strategic orientation level. Monitoring activities use an approach which is embedded in the reality of what they observe and make it possible to recognize signals at an early stage, to analyse risks and opportunities and explore strategic paths on the road to development. The results of the monitoring activities are also needed to prepare and conduct a national survey of selected experts. The members of the Panel will be consulted in two phases (Spring/Summer 2008 and from November 2008). The results will form the basis for a multi-disciplinary "Foresight Monitoring" activity.

Structured research

Foresight processes usually start with a "diagnosis phase" to analyse the dynamics of the system under study. Structured searches are a central part of this phase in addition to environmental scanning. They aim to provide a systematic, continuous assessment of the relevant developments within a field (active scanning). A structuring framework guarantees that the relevant characteristics of the signals received are registered. However, this should not be allowed to affect receptiveness for unexpected changes.

Structured searches within the framework of the BMBF's Foresight Process are focused on identifying research topics which are highly relevant for the "10 to 15 years + X" period. Initial topics were agreed as an introductory structure, each of which is supervised by topic coordinators (scanners), who evaluated a large number of sources and conducted personal talks with the relevant experts. Mind maps showing various levels were used to structure the fields. Further search fields were put into more concrete terms in Berlin in November 2007 at the kick-off workshop of national experts for the BMBF's Foresight-Process. These fields were determined on the basis of mind maps and interface matrixes. In a second step, the scanners compiled the signals identified in a data base and assessed them with regard to central aspects such as time horizon. The entries were regularly analysed by a team of coordinators.

Intensive discussions then took place between the scanners on the basis of these results, and adjustments were made to the search structures. New search fields were set up in cases where this enabled the enhanced exploitation of several relevant signals. This type of adaptive search structure prevents those responsible becoming trapped in entrenched search patterns. In this way the diagnosis phase produced an extended set of topic areas with relevant signals for research topics with a time horizon of at least ten years and passed them on to the next phase for evaluation.

Data mining

Data mining within BMBF's Foresight Process is conducted by the firm of SRI Business Intelligence (SRI) via a data base containing entries on trends and future topics. The information generated is processed for use in the BMBF's Foresight Process.

Bibliometric analysis

A bibliometric analysis is conducted of the Science Citation Index (SCI) and the Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) of the Web of Science literature data base, which contains a large number of the most important specialist articles written in English. An analysis of the number of publications in the specialist areas of the SCI and SSCI defined by the Web of Science reveals those areas showing dynamism, good scientific standing and expertise in Germany and allows these areas to be studied in more detail. Important specialist articles in a given field are studied with regard to interdisciplinarity with respect to citations. This can provide information on further possible cross-cutting topics which have not yet been included in the process.

Inventor scouting

Inventor scouting aims to find people with unconventional ideas and new topics. This is intended to provide new stimulus for innovative approaches. To begin with, it studies bibliometric clusters of isolated topics. The process also sets out to identify people with "unconventional" ideas in the respective area, as well as young researchers and their topics by means of the German Research Association's Hochschullehrerverzeichnis (Index of Academic Staff) (PhD students) and the Young Researchers Competition.

Expert discourse

Structured dialogues between experts are a central element of every foresight process. Compared with merely questioning experts, two aspects of such dialogues are particularly important: the targeted exploitation of knowledge which looks ahead to the future and which is often only implicit, and the integration of expert knowledge from different perspectives (collective intelligence). The selection of experts depends on the subject matter and the perspective of the foresight process. In many cases expertise is required on scientific and technical, sociological, cultural, political and economic aspects in order to be able to plot plausible and relevant paths for the future.

The BMBF's Foresight Process has made use of expert dialogues in various areas. At the beginning of the Process, an expert workshop generated and evaluated future topic areas in interactive group work. Attention was focused on establishing cross references between disciplines and fields of application. An imaginary journey through time ensures the inclusion of a future perspective. The further course of the first phase of the BMBF's Foresight Process included many interdisciplinary expert dialogues involving different methodical elements. This meant that it was possible to include heterogeneous elements, particularly in the new topic areas, and to integrate them in a new future perspective.

International Monitoring Panel

International Monitoring Panel

The above diagram shows the structure of the International Panel. The overview shows which experts are members of the Panel.