Technology Foresight and Technology Observation

Technology foresight and observation play an important role for a growing number of countries which do not want to fall behind in the international technology race and lose their ability to compete internationally. Foresight serves to identify technologies which will be decisive for a country's continued ability to compete. The knowledge gained is used to establish priorities in research and technology policy. Scientists and experts from industry and other societal groups are involved in foresight activities.

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More and more countries are engaging in activities of technology foresight and observation, prompted by ever-tighter public R&D budgets and an interest in not falling behind in the international technology competition and losing their ability to compete internationally. These countries hope to be able to identify technologies which will be decisive for their future competitiveness and to gain information for setting future priorities in their research and technology policies.

All foresight activities have one thing in common: they are all organized to a greater or lesser extent as a process involving as many scientists and experts from industry and the administration as possible, together with representatives of other societal groups.

Many years ago, the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) began to introduce various technology foresight processes in order to generate the knowledge required to be able to plan strategic programmes. One of these was "Technology at the Beginning of the 21st Century" (1991-1992). The first German Delphi Study on the development of science and technology was conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (FhG-ISI) on behalf of the then Federal Ministry of Research and Technology (BMFT) in 1992/93. This study was carried out in cooperation with the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) in Tokyo. It was followed by "Delphi '93" (1992-1993) and "Delphi '98" (1996-1998).

With its "Futur" research dialogue (2001-2005), the BMBF conducted a foresight process which emphasized participative aspects in particular. "Futur" differed from the Delphi studies, which had relied strongly on scientific expertise, in so far as its aim was to explore research topics which could be translated into concrete research funding activities. In doing so it cooperated with a large group of stakeholders from all areas of society.

The early recognition of promising technologies and technology foresight are taking place on behalf of and with the assistance of the BMBF as a continuous process, both within the Ministry's specialist departments and divisions as well as in the form of cross-sectional studies at national and international level, for example in the EU. Examples of this are the EU's Nano-Roadmaps, the Mini-Delphi Study on "Electronics of the Future" and on "Potentials and Trends in Bionics". Apart from presenting the facts, these studies also take a look at threshold technologies and at Germany's potential as a location for such technologies.

The BMBF's "hreflang=en class="linkint">Innovations and Technology Analysis"(ITA) concept seeks to identify fields of socially accepted technological progress, illustrate potential, identify political scope and develop options for research and innovation. The analysis studies the functioning of and changes in research and innovation systems. It examines the many different institutions, instruments and strategies in industry, science and the state sector which produce knowledge and technological innovations or play a role in this process. In addition, the BMBF is conducting general analyses and studies on specific individual areas of technology. The ITA is intended to provide guidance in a highly technologized society and contribute to promoting more humane, socially just and environmentally sound technological processes. The ITA projects and studies will take up issues which are geared towards innovation, courses of action and the future and will help to make controversial discussions more objective. Interdisciplinary studies will be funded within the framework of the ITA. A particular focus is on the assessment of new technologies with future potential.

In addition, the BMBF will also introduce a new technology foresight process. The new process will methodically analyse the developments expected in the long term in selected areas of technology and research, making an international comparison and involving the research organizations and industrial research. The study's duration of approximately 10 to 15 years is longer than that of the ITA.

The BMBF's technology foresight process is supported by the German research community. Under the "Joint Initiative for Research and Innovation", the Federal Government and the Länder have agreed with the German research organizations to explore strategic new research areas using foresight methods and to improve the opportunities for high-risk and unconventional approaches to research.