14.05.2009 - 10.07.2009

Announcement

by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research from Regulations governing the funding measure Decadal Climate Prediction (MiKlip)

1. Funding purpose and legal basis

1.1 Funding purpose

The objective of the proposed funding measure is to develop a model system for forecasting the expected climate changes and its related extreme weather phenomena on a time scale of up to ten years with consideration of both, anthropogenically induced changes and natural climate variation. In technical terms, methods of seasonal forecasting must be combined with climate projection methods.
Apart from short-term forecasting on the one hand and long-term climate scenarios on the other hand, there is an increasing need for reliable climate information covering periods of several years up to even decades, because economic planning and also planning in politics and society usually refer to periods of around ten years. The model system that is to be developed within the framework of this funding measure is expected to contribute to the generation of reliable information on the climate development on these time horizons. The resulting climate forecasts will provide the basis for improving the capacity of industry and society to adapt to future climate variations. This funding measure is motivated by the needs of these end users.

Work on the new model system will entail great new challenges for the development of existing and new methods. This covers in particular the determination of the initial state, the description of the processes that are crucial for decadal climate prediction (e. g. modelling of the cryosphere or biosphere), the increase of spatial resolution through regionalization, the improvement or adaptation of statistical post-processing, and last but not least, the synthesis and validation of the entire model system.

The present approach widens the range of research activities and measures on how to deal with climate change as part of the High-Tech Strategy (HTS) for Climate Protection in the area "Knowledge - a basis for climate protection and adaptation".

1.2 Legal basis

Projects grants will be awarded in accordance with the present funding regulations, the BMBF's standard terms and conditions for grants on an expenditure or cost basis and the administrative regulations under sections 23 and 44 of the Federal Budget Code (BHO). Applicants have no legal claim to a grant. The grant-awarding agency will take its decision after due assessment of the circumstances within the framework of the budget funds available.

2. Object of funding

Funding will be provided for research and development projects which pursue the described funding purpose. The funding measure aims to promote the development of a model system for decadal climate prediction covering a period of up to ten years.
Initially, the concept for the development of a model system should include the following basic components or modules:

• Module A: Determination of the initial state and initialization of the model system
• Module B: Process description and modelling
• Module C: Regionalization
• Module D: Synthesis and integration of the model system
• Module E: Validation and ensembles

The structure of the concept will be finalized and adapted, if appropriate, on the basis of the proposals received. The design of the modules may still be modified in this context.
The modules for which proposals are invited are outlined in the following.

Module A: Determination of the initial state and initialization of the model system

Modelling the decadal scale requires a new pattern for determining the initial state with regard to detailed spatial and temporal observations in the individual climate subsystems. In addition, new methods for the initialization of the model system are needed to integrate this data. The proposals are expected to facilitate the integration of multidimensional observational data sets of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere-land surface system. Here the focus is especially on the determination of initial conditions with regard to the oceans, the land surface, the cryosphere and the lower stratosphere (including the tropopause region). Consideration should also be given to new methods of earth observation such as the ESA Earth Explorer missions.

Module B: Process description and modelling

Proposals for this module should be aimed at the description of subsystems and processes that become relevant on time and spatial scales of decadal climate prediction and that have so far been described and modelled either insufficiently or not at all and may need to be adapted. This applies to climate subsystems such as the biosphere (including the consideration of land use changes), the cryosphere and the stratosphere, as well as parts of atmospheric chemistry and aerosol physics.

Module C: Regionalization

Climate information on the regional scale is vitally important for users. A regionalization approach is thus also required for decadal forecasting. Mainly statistical and dynamic approaches to regionalization have been pursued so far. Proposals for this module should aim to identify and apply methods and techniques for the regionalization in decadal climate prediction.

Module D: Synthesis and integration of the model system

This module focuses on the development of the structure and composition of the model system for decadal climate prediction. Efforts will build on the fundamental structures of earth system / climate modelling, which will be adapted and to which other modules, e. g. for process modelling (Module B), will be added. The task will be to develop an open model system which can be used with different experimental set-ups and will be available to all researchers involved in the funding activity. Performing simulations of decadal climate prediction using the best possible model system set-up is another objective of this central and cross-cutting thematic module. Moreover, the model system should be designed in a way that the latest research results from the other modules can be integrated into the model system at any time.

Module E: Validation and ensembles

Comprehensive and coordinated validation will enable the quantification of model uncertainties, the reliable evaluation of the forecasts and a direct comparison between the results of different simulations. Such validation will also provide useful information for the further development and calibration of the entire model system. In addition to the respective validation concept, the proposals for this module will inter alia draw on reliable, quality-controlled observational data from the whole climate system (e. g. new ESA missions) and include analysed or re-analysed data sets into validation. Proposals focussing on the validation aspect of this module could also deal with the variability modes (teleconnection patterns) in the atmosphere and oceans in response to long-term greenhouse gas, aerosol and land surface changes.

Just like modern weather and seasonal forecasting, decadal climate prediction will be expressed in terms of probability that is based on ensemble forecasting methods. Proposals focussing on the ensembles aspect are expected to deal in specific with the following topics:

• Methods for the efficient provision of ensembles in decadal climate prediction which balance the conflicting requirements in terms of quality and efficiency.
• Analysis and evaluation of the processes governing ensemble dispersal.
• Determination of probabilities (also regarding extreme events) and of uncertainties by means of respective post-processing activities.

3. Recipients of funding

Applications for funding may be submitted by German universities and non-university research establishments and by commercial companies - particularly SMEs - and other organizations or legal entities. For information regarding the EU's standard definition of SMEs please visit http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/enterprise_policy/sme_definition/index_en.htm. Research institutions which receive joint basic funding from the Federal Government and the Federal States (Länder) can only be granted projects funds to cover additional expenditure under certain conditions.

4. Prerequisites for funding

Applicants must be prepared to tackle problems in a work-sharing and partnership approach within the network generated by the development of the model system. Applicants must prove that they have reached basic agreement on specific criteria stipulated by the BMBF before a funding decision can be taken. For further details please refer to BMBF form 0110, which can be found at http://www.kp.dlr.de/profi/easy/bmbf/pdf/0110.pdf.

In their own interest, applicants should familiarize themselves with the EU's Research Framework Programme in the context of the envisaged national project. They should check whether the intended project includes specific European components which make it eligible for funding as an EU project. Furthermore, they should examine whether an additional application for funding can be submitted to the EU in the context of the envisaged national project. The result of such examinations should be described briefly in the national application for funding.

5. Type, scope and level of funding

The funding measure MiKlip is planned for a period of four years. Funds can be awarded as non-repayable project grants.

The basis for calculating the grants for commercial companies is the eligible project-related costs, up to 50% of which can as a rule be covered by government grants, depending on the project's closeness to application. The BMBF policy requires an adequate self-contribution of at least 50% towards the eligible costs incurred.

The basis for calculating the grants for universities, research institutions and similar establishments is the eligible project-related expenditure (the eligible project-related costs in the case of Helmholtz centres and the Fraunhofer Gesellschaft - FhG), which can be funded up to 100% in individual cases.

The European Commission's Community Framework for State Aid for Research and Development must be taken into account when determining the rates of funding. The Community Framework allows differentiated bonus arrangements for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which may result in a higher rate of funding.

6. Other terms and conditions for awarding funds

The Nebenbestimmungen für Zuwendungen auf Kostenbasis des BMBF an Unternehmen der gewerblichen Wirtschaft für Forschungs- und Entwicklungsvorhaben (Auxiliary Terms and Conditions for Funds Provided by the BMBF to Commercial Companies for Research and Development Projects on a Cost Basis - NKBF 98) will be part of the notification of award for grants on a cost basis.

The Allgemeine Nebenbestimmungen für Zuwendungen zur Projektförderung (General Auxiliary Conditions for Grants for the Promotion of Projects - ANBest-P) and the Besondere Nebenbestimmungen für Zuwendungen des BMBF zur Projektförderung auf Ausgabenbasis (Special Auxiliary Terms and Conditions for Funds Provided by the BMBF for the Promotion of Projects on an Expenditure Basis - BNBest-BMBF 98) will be part of the notification of award for grants on an expenditure basis. The General Auxiliary Conditions for Project Grants awarded to Territorial Authorities and Associations of Territorial Authorities (ANBest-GK) will be part of the notification of award for funds granted to territorial authorities.

7. Procedure

7.1 Involvement of a project management organization and request for documents

The Federal Ministry of Education and Research has entrusted the following project management organization with the implementation of the funding measure:

Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V.
- Projektträger im DLR -
Geschäftsbereich Umwelt, Kultur, Nachhaltigkeit
Heinrich-Konen-Straße 1
53227 Bonn
Germany
Fax: +49 (0)228-3821-540
E-mail: Umweltsystemforschung@dlr.de
Internet: http://pt-uf.pt-dlr.de

Contact:
Dr. Annette Münzenberg
Tel.: +49 (0)228-3821-566

Dr. Jochen Stuck
Tel.: +49 (0)228-3821-519

Application forms, guidelines, information for applicants and the auxiliary terms and conditions for the award of grants are available on the internet at http://www.kp.dlr.de/profi/easy/formular.html or can be obtained directly from the project management organization.

7.2 Selection and decision-making procedure

Selection is a two-stage process. It relies on an independent evaluation panel involving international experts. Applicants are requested to submit project outlines in the first stage. The thematic structure and the consortium of the funding priority will be designed against the background of the evaluation and selection of these outlines (see section 7.2.1). On this basis, full proposals will be drafted and submitted in the second stage (see section 7.2.4).

7.2.1 Structure of the first stage (outlines) of the funding priority

An open procedure is expected to generate a broad range of ideas and proposals for an integrated decadal climate prediction system. The first stage (submission of project outlines) comprises two steps for tackling the complex task of establishing the research consortium. These two steps, which are described in the following, will be implemented simultaneously. The same deadline for the submission of proposals applies to both steps (see section 7.2.2).

• Coordinators competition:
  The aim of the first step is to select the coordinators for the modules specified in section 2. In this process, the funding provider will be advised by an independent expert panel. The coordinators' tasks include drafting the structure of their respective modules and integrating them into the overall concept. The selected coordinators will then file the applications for their modules (see section 7.2.3). In addition, they bear chief responsibility for their modules in terms of project implementation.
• Ideas competition:
  The second step involves the submission of outline proposals contributing to the modules. The outlines will be evaluated parallel to the coordinators competition. Here too, the funding provider will be advised by the expert panel. The proposals and the result of their evaluation will provide the basis for the composition and structuring of the individual modules and the coordinated overall concept for decadal climate prediction by the selected coordinators.

7.2.2 Submission and evaluation of project outlines

In accordance with the two procedural steps described in section 7.2.1, proposals matching the following aspects can be submitted:

1. Outlines of candidates applying for one of the module coordinator positions should include a concept for the design of the respective module. These outlines should not exceed 10 pages. They should be structured as follows:
   1. Concept for the design and implementation of the module which presents the main problems and potential solutions, including a description of how the module will be integrated into the overall context of decadal climate prediction on the basis of society's current and expected future need of knowledge
   2. Brief description of the planned research activities and of the work programme at module level
   3. Brief description of possibly existing networks with other players and their possible involvement in the funding measure
   4. Presentation of the applicant's own expertise
   5. Estimate of time needed and of prospective costs (grants and own funds) for assuming chief responsibility for the respective modules.
2. Research proposals (individual applicants or collaborations) contributing to the modules (see section 2) should not exceed 8 pages. They should be structured as follows:
   1. Objective and problem against the background of the current level of knowledge and technology, innovativeness of the approach
   2. Description of the planned research activities and of the work programme; applicants simultaneously submitting a proposal relating to aspect a) are requested to describe the links, if any, for applications referring to the same module
   3. Description of the application potential including an evaluation of feasible contributions to the goal of the funding measure
   4. For collaborative proposals: management concept, cooperation partners and work sharing
   5. Expertise of project participants
   6. Estimate of time needed and of prospective costs (grants and own funds).

Within the prescribed format, applicants are free to add further information which they consider to be significant for the evaluation of the project outline.

Major collaborations would seem to be best suited for addressing this research topic but they are not mandatory. It is recommended to form collaborations addressing the issues of the modules specified in section 2 in a cooperative and interdisciplinary approach. Integration into an overall model forms a separate module (Module D).
Outlines for a) and b) should as a rule be prepared online via the Internet portal "pt-outline" at https://www.pt-it.de/ptoutline/miklip/. In addition, a signed printed version must be submitted to the responsible project management organization by the deadline specified below to ensure the binding effect of the online version of the project outline.

Alternatively, applicants may send a signed printed version of their project outlines directly to the mailing address of the responsible project management organization and simultaneously an electronic version by e-mail to umweltsystemforschung@dlr.de.

A panel of international experts will evaluate the outlines. Project descriptions must therefore be submitted in English.

The deadline for the submission of outlines for a) and b) is 10th of July 2009.

The deadline for submission is not a cut-off deadline. However, it may not be possible to consider project outlines which are received belatedly or which are incomplete.
The outlines of applicants for the position of a coordinator will be evaluated on the basis of the following criteria:

• Research concept, contribution to the overall concept for decadal climate prediction, consideration of the viewpoint of end users
• Quality of previous work
• Expertise with regard to the research topic
• Networking of expertise relevant to the funding measure
• Coordination skills.

The evaluation of research outline proposals referring to the modules will be based on the following criteria:

• Potential for a major contribution to the implementation or improvement of decadal climate prediction
• Scientific and technical quality of the proposal and of any relevant previous work
• Cooperation with other players
• For collaborations: Quality of the management concept (structure, responsibilities, interfaces).

7.2.3 Selection and decision-making procedure

It is intended to evaluate the project outlines for a) and b) (section 7.2.2) within two months following the deadline for submission. The BMBF and the project management organization will be advised by international experts in the evaluation and selection process. The above-mentioned criteria will be applied. The coordinators for the modules will first be selected (see section 2) on the basis of the evaluation. The applicants will be informed in writing about the result of the selection procedure, which will also be published.

While the module coordinators are selected, the panel of experts will evaluate the research outline proposals referring to the modules (section 2). The portfolio of submitted proposals together with their evaluation by the experts will provide the basis for further steps to develop the modules and establish the overall consortium.

The coordinators selected for the individual modules will receive funding for jointly setting up a consortium to address the topic of decadal climate prediction on the basis of the submitted research outline proposals. Information from the evaluation process, including the experts' suggestions for suitable consortium structures and collaborations, will be made available.
The modules must then be integrated into an overall concept. The issue of coordination of the overall consortium will be addressed in this context.

The overall concept (based on the outlines; a structure for the presentation of the overall concept will be decided and communicated in due course) will be reviewed and evaluated by the panel of experts. In this process, the experts can propose amendments with regard to any outlines that have not been considered.

7.2.4 Submission of formal proposals and decision-making procedure

After positive evaluation of the overall concept, the individual partners of the consortium will be invited by the funding provider to submit full proposals.
Approval and payment of and accounting for the funds as well as proof and examination of proper use and, if necessary, revocation of the award and reclaiming of the funds awarded are governed by the administrative regulations pertaining to section 44 of the Federal Budget Code (BHO) and sections 48 to 49a of the Administrative Procedure Act (VwVfG) unless deviation is permitted under the present funding regulations.

8. Entry into force

These funding regulations will enter into force on the day of their publication in the Federal Gazette (Bundesanzeiger).

Bonn, May 7th, 2009

Federal Ministry of Education and Research

Dr. Helbig
Head of Global Change Division